Property Market Analysis for 2012
As global economy is getting weaker and weaker everyday with tighter mortgage availability, experts have claimed that house prices will drop in the year 2012.
Real estate agencies are predicting a large drop in the property market in 2012. A 5% drop in the UK is anticipated by Knight Frank. On the other hand, Savills and Hampton International think that the price fall across U.K. will be around 2%. They are expecting that price will vary a lot from region to region. No matter what the number is, all agencies have the similar prediction that the price of real estate property will surely drop in 2012.
Due to the fluctuating nature, people are losing faith day by day in the housing business. The number of investors in real estate and homebuyers are decreasing day by day. This has leaded the property experts to believe that the number of houses bought in 2012 will shrink by a good margin. As the housing transaction lessens every month and mortgage finance rules becoming stricter, people will get less and less interested to invest in real estate or to buy more houses. “The key message is that the uncertainty over the economy – U.K. and indeed worldwide – and a poor outlook for jobs will make U.K. and European borrowers more nervous about taking on large debts,” stated Nigel Bedford of Largemortgageloans.com.
The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has put a wrinkle on the forehead of mortgage brokers. After the wholesale three month interbank lending rate increased from 0.83 cent in August to 1.05 cent is December, a lot of lenders increased their mortgage rates.
Experts brokers predict that lenders will keep increasing the lending rates until the euroze debt crisis in solved. They anticipate that mortgage lenders are going to lend less in the upcoming year. Council of Mortgage Lenders has estimated that gross lending will be £133 billion and net lending will be £5 billion in the upcoming year. On contrarily, gross lending was £138 billion and net lending was £9 billion in the year 2011.
The U.K. government has recently announced a new-build mortgage indemnity scheme which has given new homebuyers a tiny ray of hope. The rate of this new scheme is yet to be disclosed. First time buyers will face problems after March 24 because stamp duty on properties with the value of £250,000 or less will come to an end.
Savills predicted a 3% rise in rents in 2012 as private rented housing is expected to increase. They are expecting that 20% households will be renting by the year 2015-2016. This is almost a 4% increase from the year 2009-2010.
Prime London real estate properties are forecasted to have a slower growth than 2011. Savills is expecting the growth to be 3% in the upcoming year, Knight Frank sees 5% and Hampton believes that the growth is going to be 4%.
The situation of mortgage finance is not going to change much in 2012 for wealthy borrowers as some private banks are planning to lend more than 2011. But borrowers will have to be involved in bigger financial transactions with the bank than ever before.